Principle 05 of 06
Think in years, not days
Time in the market - with a clear thesis - beats timing the market.
The idea
Technology waves take years to play out. Electrification, the internet and smartphones all took a decade or more to reach their full impact - and their investors had to sit through many scary moments along the way.
When I started in 2022, I wrote down a four-year horizon. That one decision made everything else easier: daily headlines, quarterly misses and sudden sell-offs became noise, not signals.
Why it matters
Most of AI’s value creation shows up over years, not days. Short-term traders were shaken out by every wobble; a long horizon let compounding do its work - taking the portfolio from 100 to 700.
How I applied it
Across the four-year journey
2022
Wrote a simple investment thesis and a four-year time frame before buying anything.
2023
Held through a mid-year pullback that tempted many to sell after the first big run.
2025
Re-read the original thesis during the sell-offs - it was still intact, so I held.
2026
Reached the four-year mark and set a fresh horizon for the next chapter.
In practice
My working rules
- ✓Write your thesis down. Re-read it when you feel the urge to act.
- ✓Check prices less often. Weekly or monthly is plenty for a long-term investor.
- ✓Judge companies on multi-year progress, not one quarter’s results.
- ✓Only sell if the thesis is broken - not because the price fell.
Watch out
The trap: long-term as an excuse
“I’m a long-term investor” can become a reason to ignore real warning signs. A long horizon still needs regular, honest check-ins against the original thesis.
Key takeaway
“The noise is daily. The trend is measured in years. Invest for the trend.”